If very large-scale reforestation of an area the size of Brazil is added to the scenario storyline, it would result in limiting warming to 1. By adopting a modelling approach that is grounded in the current reality of the energy system and combined with a specific long-term goal, Sky is intended to be both an ambitious scenario and a realistic tool to inform dialogue. The IPCC report finds that limiting global warming to 1.
The world gets most of its energy from coal, oil and gas, with around a fifth of all energy used to generate electricity. Energy sources differ across industry, transport and domestic use, which all need to transition to low-carbon options. There are currently no easy replacements to fuel heavy industries, where extremely high process temperatures are required. Petrochemicals are the building blocks of thousands of products that people use daily.
The buildings sector is responsible for nearly one-third of global final energy consumption and is also the source of a large proportion of electricity demand and therefore emissions in the power sector.
The primary use of energy in buildings is for heating or cooling, lighting and cooking. There are currently no easy replacements for hydrocarbons in energy intensive industries, such as in petrochemicals or in iron and steel manufacturing where extremely high temperatures need carbon-intensive processes. The power sector transforms primary energy into the electricity used in other end-use sectors.
Because electricity is emission-free at its point of use, the decarbonisation of the power sector can enable decarbonisation elsewhere. The Rocky Mountain Institute seeks to transform global energy use to create a clean, prosperous and secure low-carbon future. As one of the leading energy multinationals in the world, Shell will also need to increase its ambitions, seizing the opportunity to lead the way in the energy transition and helping shape global decarbonisation ambitions. You are here: Reports Sustainability Report Sustainable energy future Climate change and energy transition Previous article Sustainable energy future.
Do you need to print this article? Other model predictions have also failed. The rates of sea-level rise have not accelerated. The weather has not become more extreme. The Yale Program on Climate Change Communication started a study that broke Americans down into six categories regarding concern about climate change. One should always maintain a skeptical attitude, even about one's own work.
Maybe even especially about one's own work. District Judge William Alsup said he had received two of the briefs. They're predicting much more warming than has being observed. You can look out the window and see everything's getting worse; this is what you actually see if you pull up the data: Nothing is changing. Some research is providing extremely useful data on climate-related phenomena, with instrumentation in space, on land and in the oceans. Unfortunately, substantial resources are also being diverted into a cult of climate alarmism. There is an inordinate focus on ominous predictions of computer models that clearly do not work.
Global warming, climate change, extreme weather, globalization, carbon credits and taxes, and the sources and beneficiaries of the funding streams that support the advocacy of these concepts and policies will be considered. Happer provided a speech of the same name the following day, with video published by the ICON Lecture Series below: . I mean we should be ashamed of ourselves in America and in Europe of what's happening there all in the name of saving the planet. It's just silly virtue signaling, it's not saving anything, and it's hurting a lot of people.
That really do no good at all, and they really do harm. Happer points to a graph from John R. Climate's going to continue to change. It's always changed, from the beginning of the world it will continue.
Happer goes on to compare the emissions from power plant to human breath. Although he clearly understands basic climate science, his presentation includes claims that are exaggerated, misleading, or incorrect regarding human-caused climate change. His presentation is entertaining, but he argues in many places against claims that climate scientists do not make.
He acknowledges that CO2 has an influence on climate, but emphasizes that the influence is small. His claims that climate models do not work are exaggerated and misleading. He also claims that increased CO2 will be beneficial by increasing plant growth — it is true that plant growth will increase by the CO2 increase alone, but he does not show that it will be beneficial, especially when climate is changing at the same time as CO2. His presentation ignores the large number of studies available that show that through climate change, CO2 will be detrimental to agricultural productivity as well as to human well-being generally.
Slides — With regards to climate models, West said that Happer exaggerated claims that models don't work. Climate is weather over a long period, typically taken as at least 30 years. To evaluate the models for their performance in reproducing climate change, we should look over longer periods of time. Even more than lessening the influence of human activities, the discussion today is about keeping human-caused climate change from getting out of control.
There have been very few suggestions that increased CO2 is harmful to human health, and it is generally treated as not being harmful to health when inhaled directly. Slide 14 — Happer downplays pollution from power plants by focusing on how it is largely invisible. But this discussion is not directly relevant for climate change. Even if we considered the CO2 increase alone, that would not only promote plant growth but would do so differentially among plants, with some plants growing much faster than other plants — resulting in changing competition within the ecosystem that would be difficult to predict.
Now compound that stress on ecosystems by considering changes in climate at the same time, as well as changes in land use such as deforestation, and we see that ecosystems are experiencing several stresses at the same time. Rather it is CO2 that drives changes in H2O that amplify climate change. He says that the Earth was verdant in the past, implying that shifting to a warmer climate would be beneficial. In saying that he leaves out important details. But the frequency and intensity of the strongest hurricanes has been observed to have increased since the , and he does not mention that.
I think it would be hard to find examples of mainstream climate scientists being so overtly political. S-based cliamate change denial groups. It will potentially harm the image of all science.
Breaking News Emails Get breaking news alerts and special reports. The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific low confidence and in the eastern North Pacific medium confidence. Harvard University Gazette. The rate of acidification is unparalleled in at least the past 66 million years medium confidence. Controversy heats up in the scientific community".
Pruitt has also demonstrated understanding of and open-mindedness toward scientific insights crucial to the formulation and implementation of environmental regulation. Yes, it has happened in the past and will happen in the future. Is man making an impact on the climate?
Perhaps but in very small ways. But the overarching consensus remains the climate change we are experiencing is by no means catastrophic. About half of this is the Gobi desert. These plants are completely benign, you know. And this is not getting any better, as Pat mentioned. We know that thanks to Roy Spencer who will be talking in a minute here. So we hope that we can convince you that actually CO2 is a benefit, not a pollutant. Mostly water vapor and CO2. So, Europe can do what it likes.
I hope the US will be sensible, but it can do what it likes. He talks about a geological period known as the Phanerozoic eon which started about million years ago and stretches to the present. Man does not and cannot control the climate. I am trying to find another layer of scientist whose stories have not been out there yet. You will see a lot of new names in this. The Administrative Law Judge concludes that Peabody failed to demonstrate that an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1 or 1.
The Administrative Law Judge concludes that the climate sensitivity is reasonably considered to be in the And observed surface warmings are much smaller than predicted by climate models. An increase in essential CO2 in the atmosphere will be a huge benefit to plants and agriculture. For tens of millions of years, plants have been coping with a ' CO2 famine. We support the cost-effective control of real pollutants associated with the use of fossil fuels — for example, fly ash, oxides of nitrogen and sulfur or smog-forming volatile hydrocarbons.
In the investigation, Greenpeace reporters posed as representatives from fictional coal and oil companies and approached academics from Princeton and Penn State to ask for papers that would promote the benefits of CO2 while requesting that they conceal funding sources.
Greenpeace investigators then asked Peter Lipsett of DonorsTrust whether they would be willing to accept the funds from a foreign oil company. Lipsett responded, saying that while the funds would need to come from a U. Read the complete email chain including William Happer and DonorsTrust here. The aim was simply to smear their enemies. The paper would shortly be used in testimony on December 8. Moore focused on the previously debunked theory that global warming would be beneficial to plant growth without any negative effects: [ 41 ]. It always has. And it's warmed a little bit in the last years, apparently.
William Happer is a signatory to an open letter to Pope Francis on climate change. The letter invites the Pope to reconsider his views on climate change before his upcoming encyclical letter on the environment, which is widely expected to call for measures to prevent climate change in the interests of the world's poor. The open letter was coordinated and signed by Calvin Beisner of the Cornwall Alliance. They therefore provide no rational basis to forecast dangerous human-induced global warming, and therefore no rational basis for efforts to reduce warming by restricting the use of fossil fuels or any other means.
The October, email was leaked to journalists before the documentary was released. Failing to admit when the answer to an important question is simply not known does a disservice to the public. We believe that this new paper does a much better job of presenting the whole picture to the public. William Happer and Harrison H. Media Transparency reported on the Op-Ed , concluding that most of the scientists have never published articles in peer-reviewed journals on the subject of climate change. In a September response to Happer's article, Michael C. In contrast to Dr. According to the petitioners, representing the Coalition for Responsible Regulation, Inc.
It is happening right now! This range is found in later phase 1 of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario. This is because as the temperature goes up the probability of crossing more tipping points goes up as well. It is important to keep in mind that as we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences and the consequences of the tipping points themselves will of themselves continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. This is again in summary, because:. The points of no return before a tipping point is crossed as well as the crossed tipping point itself, create "slippery" conditions where it becomes far easier for that condition or consequence to worsen far more quickly and at a far steeper gradient.
Unless we make the required radical global fossil fuel reductions found here , it is also unlikely that:. And, most importantly. At the to carbon ppm range, there will be so much climate system momentum from previously committed carbon and other greenhouse gas pollution of our atmosphere towards moving quickly to even higher temperatures, that stopping this momentum will be like trying to stop a gigantic boulder from rolling faster and faster down a hill that keeps getting steeper and steeper.
follow But, this will only occur if we fail to successfully execute these global fossil fuel reductions. This will be long after the damage is done and long after anything can be done for the billions of people who will suffer and die! Because of the preceding, we have no other rational alternative other than to prevent ever crossing into this highly dangerous transitional carbon ppm range and tipping point, at which our current rate of greenhouse gas pollution will begin sometime around Do you still have doubts if the to carbon ppm range safe?
Here is some other research that while we feel that it still suffers from politicizing underestimation errors and lack of factoring in the crossing of any tipping points, it is still worth reviewing so you know it is not just us warning you how bad this threshold is. A November report by PwC, Busting the carbon Budget , says that at our current rate of fossil fuel usage in the global economy, we will exceed that limit by Click here to learn more about how another 10 climate scientists view the serious dangers of crossing the to carbon ppm range. Crossing any global warming tipping point creates an extreme vulnerability and exposure because the danger is neither singular nor constant.
It is not a singular threat because at a minimum, many tipping points and points of no return reside within the climate, human, and biological systems and subsystems—any of which could be crossed and feedback into other interconnected systems or subsystems, triggering a cascading meltdown of more crossed global warming tipping points across more and more systems. There is not just the threat of a single keystone tipping point.
There are potentially many tipping points that, if collectively crossed , could act like a keystone tipping point and lead to the final phases of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario. Crossing tipping points is also not a linear steady threat. With each rising degree of average global temperature, the threat, vulnerability, and exposure boils and rises exponentially! See boiling pot illustration below.
This helps put the enormity of risk into a comparative perspective, which helps drive home how utterly serious and urgent the global warming emergency is. Keep in mind that any global warming tipping point also has the potential to become a keystone tipping point. So how should we be managing our tipping point risks? Understanding the many unique dangers of global warming and crossing its tipping points is critical to your future quality of life. Once you understand tipping point risks are real and how they work, you are hopefully more likely to use the information in this document for managing them.
Global warming causes climate destabilization, but climate destabilization can also cause global warming. These processes can work both ways. Because they cannot absorb as much carbon, more carbon stays in the atmosphere, causing more global warming heat. There are also hopeful transition points between the processes of deepening irreversible global warming and the levels of climate destabilization. Climate destabilization transforms into irreversible warming only if there is a cascading meltdown of many tipping points, or a keystone tipping point is crossed. Astronomers use the expression runaway greenhouse effect or runaway global warming to define the worst scenario of extinction-level global warming.
Runaway global warming occurs as the climate crosses a final critical or keystone tipping point and deviates and destabilizes catastrophically and permanently from its original state. This is what scientists think happened on Venus about 4 billion years ago.
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Solar winds blew all its water vapor and atmosphere off into space. We currently do not know what tipping point level of greenhouse gases have to be present in our atmosphere before Earth could suffer the same runaway greenhouse effect and extinction-level global warming, which will cause our water and atmosphere to boil and burn off like the Venus event. In Earth's distant past, carbon levels have exceeded ppm without losing our atmosphere, but with the acceleration of carbon entering the atmosphere, there is no telling when we may reach or exceed those levels.
Click here for more information on this. As we continue crossing more global warming tipping points, the 20 worst global warming consequences and the consequences of the tipping points themselves will continue to increase in severity, frequency, and scale. This is because:. The many tipping points of global warming do not take place in a vacuum. They take place within a global context in which the 6 major global challenges and their consequences are already occurring. These 6 major global challenges that directly or indirectly will be interacting with and colliding into the global warming tipping points described below.
These additional interactions with the 6 global challenges below will make our lives and our 11 major global warming tipping points far worse. Global Challenge 1: Overpopulation, the Earth may have only the resource carrying capacity for about 2 billion people or less. We are near 8 billion people racing to 9.
We are way over sustainable population levels and future and current generations will suffer dearly because we failed to manage ourselves in this area by itself. Global Challenge 2: Resource depletion fueled by overpopulation, toxic pollution, crop failures, overfishing yrs. We already have increasing food shortages 1 billion people are hungry. Ocean fish stocks are already suffering from catastrophic losses from pollution and overfishing.
We are rapidly d epleting our many kinds of quantity-limited, nonrenewable, and even renewable resources to unsustainable levels. This resource depletion also increases global poverty by making those essential resources more expensive. To make matters worse, many of our current key resources will run out at nearly the same time! Global Challenge 3: Global economic instability. There is no doubt that the mix of the Climageddon Extinction Scenario consequences will increase global poverty, economic instability, economic inequality conflicts between rich and poor and rising national deficits.
Imagine a global financial depression or crisis occurring as we also try to solve global warming and all of our other global challenges at the same time. In the next global financial crisis or global depression, there will be even less resiliency and fewer resources to solve these challenges. Global Challenge 4 : Political instability first in countries with low management capabilities or low resource resilience or high deficits. The nations of the world are weaker than we are allowing ourselves to realize. This global challenge plus escalating global warming and the other global challenges will create sudden and massive migrations of millions then billions of people that even the richest nations will not be able to absorb.
Global Challenge 5: Global Pandemic. This is a separate high risk due to existing or new diseases being poorly treated, the mobility and migration of world populations and the overall deterioration of global health services as the stew of all of the global challenges listed above come to a global warming amplified boil. Global Challenge 6: Failing to evolve a single global government with legislative, judicial, and enforceable executive powers. In other words, the mere absence of a true global government of itself alone acts to facilitate, escalate and enable all of the global challenges that we currently face.
What we are facing with the 6 global challenges above interacting with the 7th global challenge escalating global warming and its 11 tipping points, is certain to become the greatest simultaneous convergence of multiple and cross-multiplying catastrophes in human history. Now that you have a better idea of the volatile and dangerous context in which the following global warming tipping points will take place, you are now ready to review be 11 major tipping points. This video has been viewed over 1 million times and has been translated into 22 different languages.
One note: this video gives temperature degrees in Celsius. A rough Fahrenheit temperature conversion is double the Celsius amount. Near its end, the video presents a somewhat polarized viewpoint. Though the informational and tipping point content is good, the Job One for Humanity organization that is publishing this document puts a higher priority on collaborative approaches in lieu of polarized ones.
We are facing an exponentially rising threat. If you are not fully grasping the critical difference between linear progressions and exponential progressions, it is highly recommended to view this YouTube video 62 on the nature of exponential progressions.
It has been watched 5 million times. The following two deeper science perspective sections are not required reading. They can be helpful if you are further exploring the validity of the premises forwarded in this document and the other documents on this website. The following presents some basics of systems theory and complex systems that are adaptive also known as complex adaptive systems for those who want a deeper understanding of:.
Envisioning how complex adaptive systems interact with each other through their many interconnections, interdependencies, nonlinear processes, and contexts, relationships and transformations is indeed challenging. To illustrate this challenge, imagine each global warming subsystem within the master climate system as a tangle of cooked spaghetti. Now imagine several such tangles of spaghetti interconnected by most of their strands. Sorting out what the connections are would be quite the challenge, yes?
Although that's not the best image for the overall complexity and interconnectedness of global warming, the climate, and our human and biological systems and subsystems, it will at least open the door to envisioning the research and prediction challenges climate scientists face. In spite of this inherent complexity, it is well worth the extra effort to understand the context and principles behind these relationships, processes, and transformations within global warming processes, the climate, and our human and biological systems and subsystems.
In summary, complex adaptive systems, like global warming, the climate, and our human and biological systems, are highly unpredictable, self-organizing, and often include spontaneous or nonlinear unexpected outcomes. Sometimes they also contain high-impact, nonlinear relationships, and tipping points, causing radical, sudden, and completely unforeseen consequences.
The presence of these often counter-intuitive , linear and nonlinear relationships and processes as described above means that causes and effects within climate, global warming human and biological systems and subsystems are sometimes not logically connected, clear, or predictable. Within a complex adaptive system like global warming, the climate, and our human and biological systems, one area can affect a completely different system or subsystem where there seems to be no apparent, direct or connected cause and effect relationship between these numerous interacting and interrelated systems or subsystems.
We also recommend you read the following page from Wikipedia on global warming tipping points. The escalating global warming crisis has become the greatest adaptive challenge and evolutionary adventure in human history. Paradoxically, while it is the greatest current challenge, if you step back and look at this crisis from the long evolutionary sweep of human history, this crisis is just another evolutionary challenge like the many we have overcome in the past. The following Great Bottleneck story should help you better frame the difficult challenge in front of us.
The human species has almost gone extinct at least once before. This occurred about 72, years ago. This incident has been called the Great Evolutionary Bottleneck. A supervolcano called Toba erupted and blocked the sun for about 6 years. It also covered the earth with 6 inches of ash. Because of this supervolcano eruption and the resultant volcanic ash blocking the sunlight, global temperature was dramatically lowered.
This volcano-related temperature lowering occurred on top of an already existing Ice Age. Under the cold and darkened skies, humanity as a whole was reduced to as few as 1, mating pairs. Some research suggests even fewer survivors. Maybe as few as mating pairs were all that survived of humanity. This supervolcano eruption has been called an evolutionary bottleneck because during this time the total early global human population fell from an estimated , individuals with reproductive capabilities to 1, or fewer reproducing pairs. If some other catastrophe had also occurred at the same time, humanity itself might have gone extinct.
Up until now, the Toba eruption has been the single greatest adaptive challenge to the survival of the whole of the human species. Unfortunately, today we are facing a new and far greater adaptive challenge. This second great bottleneck is different, yet in some ways similar to the first great evolutionary bottleneck.
This second bottleneck contains a global warming threat opposite to that of the colder temperatures of the first great evolutionary bottleneck. Unlike the first great bottleneck, which was caused by nature, the second is human-caused due to increasing carbon and methane atmospheric pollution and the steadily rising average global temperature. This increasing global warming is causing a destabilization of our climate from its previously fairly stable temperature range level.
This increasing destabilization will lead to some higher temperature range that may not be suitable for the survival of a majority of the 7 billion-plus people alive today. It may not be suitable for preserving any of the human species over time. This means that together as a single human species, we are facing a new great adaptive challenge in the form of the second great evolutionary bottleneck. If we are going to come through this second evolutionary bottleneck, more will need to be done faster with more people cooperating on greater levels than has ever been achieved in human history.
Whenever you feel overwhelmed by the global warming challenge in front of us, never forget that humanity made it through the first great evolutionary bottleneck with far less cooperation, technology, and resources. But, in the process of overcoming it, we will not only ensure our own future, but our effort will also provide each of us, both young and old, the opportunity to participate in the greatest evolutionary adventure in human history.
Participating in such a challenge and adventure will create a deeply meaningful and purpose-filled life. Start the Job One Plan to manage global warming by clicking here. Get your copy now! Click this link and start feeling better. DOI: Thresholds and Closing Windows. December March September 11, Sign in with Facebook , Twitter or email. Introduction "You cannot be called an alarmist if there really is something to be alarmed about.
Why global warming tipping points are important to your future: If we can determine where the global warming tipping points are, we can better predict system collapses and future catastrophes and prepare for them, as well as locate other interconnected tipping points. Positive feedback loops—endless, self-reinforcing cycles can speed a global warming process so much that it will jump from a gradual, linear progression to a very steep, exponential progression or a falling off a cliff progression or complete system collapse which can lead to mass human extinction within our lifetimes.
The global warming tipping point information disclosed below presents a grave extinction threat for humanity as well as animal and biological species. What is a global warming tipping point? The simple definition of a global warming tipping point is: The point where some process or new stimulus causes a sudden and significant change in the status of the ongoing process or system, causing it to jump from one state to a new, significantly different state.
Points of no return Before a tipping point is reached, there is another key milestone in the process. The major global warming tipping points other than increasing temperature, within interacting climate, human, and biological systems are: The total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor is the gaseous state of water. It is the most important natural greenhouse gas.